Growth is Great -- Until It Isn't
Have you ever been asked this question:
Which would you choose? $10,000,000 for every spot on a chess board or $0.01 penny on the first spot and then double it with each square.
With 64 spots, it is easy to choose $10 million times 64, but the right answer is the $0.01. This is due to the power of compounding growth, it is not even close.
A lot of the recent and amazing innovations have been a result of this principle. In particular as it applies to the doubling of a computer chips processing capability every 18 months or so, Moore’s Law. The exponential growth in computer power has radically improved what we can invent through technology.
The idea of sustained, compound growth has been driving society since the start of the agricultural revolution. We create new opportunities and innovations, and then we layer more innovations and opportunities on the top of the last layer. This is growth, and over the past 10,000 years it has delivered a lot of value to the human existence.
Here is the problem:
Growth does not only occur in computer chips. Growth in other areas like the human population come with side effects. 10,000 years ago there were 10 million homo sapiens. Today, due to consistent and accelerating doubling we have almost 8 billion people and that number will likely be double that in 30 – 40 years.
Some scientists believe the earth can only sustain 10 billion people.
The basis of this theory is there is a limit to arable land. Even if we obtained efficiency through universal vegetarianism, we would cap out at the food capacity necessary to feed about 10 billion people.
I find these arguments to be similar to the arguments that we are running out of fossil fuels, until we miraculously innovate and discover more.
I am confident that if we tried – or said more accurately, if the economic system incentivized for it – we will find ways to deliver enough food, water and energy to support more than 10 billion people.
But even if 10+ billion people are sustained, what about the side effects?
Unfortunately, all of our core systems are designed to support growth. Governments need more taxpayers; companies need more people to whom they can sell things.
Unless we change the incentive to grow, we will be unable to stop population growth and the negative impact it is having on our planet.
